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Friday, 17 September 2010
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09:00-09:15
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Opening
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Moderator: Prof. Xu Mingqi, SASS
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Welcome by CCES: Prof. Yin Xingmin, Fudan University
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Welcome by FES: Dr. Rudolf Traub-Merz
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Welcome by SASS: Prof. Zhang Youwen, Dorector, Institite of World Economy
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09:15-12:00
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SessionⅠ: From public spending to a mountain of government debt: Towards the next crisis?
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Since the 4th quarter 2008, many governments including the USA and China, have been announcing huge spending plans. At the same time, central banks, like FED and PBC, have been printing money by trillions, which will probably bring about inflation. Each country is tackling the crisis in its own way. Governments are challenged in carefully timing the end of their stimulus programs while the global recovery remains fragile. With the rise of public debt, pressure mounts to retreat from current expansionary strategies. If several large countries indulge into program of deep spending cuts and higher taxes, it may underpin the current recovery of the world economy. It is a big challenge for many countries to bring its massive deficit down while staying on the road to recovery.
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Issues to be covered:
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Ø What is the current debt situation of various countries?
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Ø Is the growth of public debt still manageable?
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Ø Will debt control lead to a premature end to stimulus programmes?
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Ø When and how should countries exit from their stimulus programmes?
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Ø Is there need for an internationally coordinated exit strategy or should each country follow its own approach?
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Ø How will exit strategies impact on domestic investment?
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Ø What will happen to asset prices in Asia, particularly in China?
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Moderator: Prof. Chen Zhao, CCES, Fudan University
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15 min
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· Prof. Xu Mingqi, SASS
“The debt situation in China: An overview”
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15 min
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· Dr. Zhao Min, Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Finance Development Center,
“Local Government Finance and debt situation”
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15 min
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· Prof. Toshihiko Kinoshita, Waseda University (conf., invited by SASS)
Topic: ???
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15 min
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· Prof. Dr. Helmut Reisen, Head of Research, OECD, Paris (invited by FES, conf.) “Public debt crisis: Comparing OECD-Emerging Economies”
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15 min
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· Prof. Dr. Sebastian Dullien (conf., invited by FES)
“The European Debt Crisis : Origins and Challenges for the coming years”
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Tea Break
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Discussion
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12:00-14:00
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Lunch Break
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14:00-17:30
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Session Ⅱ: Restoring export-oriented growth models or moving towards expansion of domestic demand?
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Recovery from the crisis demands answers to traditional questions of growth models, including debt sustainability and trade and capital flow imbalances. Washington has indicated the future U.S. growth may focus on an export-oriented, rather than consumption-oriented model. For major export-oriented countries or regions, such as China, Japan, Korea or Germany, this may bring pressure to expand domestic demand. Will international free-trade prevail in the face of trade protectionism?
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Issues to be covered:
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Ø Are current anti-free-trade and protectionism policies sign for too much export orientation in the global economy?
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Ø Will Asia and other regions have to shift from an export-led model of growth to one driven by internal consumption?
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Ø What policies are effective to bring such a switch?
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Ø Which industries may be mostly affected? Which industries in Asia will emerge the strongest in the post-crisis world?
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Ø Is a rebalancing of world trade supportive or detrimental for managing the road to global recovery?
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Moderator: Prof. Helmut Reisen, Head of Research, OECD
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15 min
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· Dr. Zhang Yan Fudan University (conf.)
Topic: ??? Fiscal Policy???
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15 min
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· Prof. Yin Xingmin, CCES, Fudan University
"Stimulating Policy and Industrial Restructuring in China".
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15 min
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Tea Break
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15 min
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· Dr. Yoocheul Song, Professor, Dongduk Women’s University, Seoul
Korea conf. (invited by FES), conf.
“Korea’s Effort to Overcome the World Economic Crisis”
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15 min
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· Dr. Thomas Palley, Schwartz Economic Growth Fellow, New America Foundation (invited by FES, conf.)
Topic: ???
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15 min
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· Nimrod Zalk, Deputy Director-General: Industrial Development Division, Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa (invited by FES, conf.)
Topic: ???
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Tea Break
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Discussion
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17:30
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End of DAY ONE
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Saturday, 18 September 2010
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09:00-12:00
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Session Ⅲ: Recasting the relation between the financial system and the real economy
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Political interventions may be needed to assist financial institutions in rethinking their business models in the context of economic development. One of the many challenges in reforming global financial regulation lies in recasting the relationship between financial system and the real economic growth.
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Issues to be covered:
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Ø How to mitigate global risks and address systemic failure?
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Ø Can the risk of a systemic failure be minimized?
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Ø Should an international regulator be flexible enough to care for national difference?
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Ø How to build an early warning system in financial institutions?
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Ø How should the financial system be linked to the real economy?
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Moderator: Dr. Thomas Palley, New America Foundation
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15 min
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· NN, China (SASS)
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15 min
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· Tang Yugang, Shandong University
"Local Finance Innovation: Origins, Performance and Risks".
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15 min
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· Dierk Hirschel, Ver.di, Germany (invited by FES, conf..)
„Alternatives to finance-driven capitalism“.
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15 min
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· Dr. Stephan Schulmeister, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Vienna (invited by FES, conf.) “Asset Price Fluctuations, the Great Crisis and thePotential of a Financial Transactions Tax”
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15 min
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· Dr. Okwu J. Nnanna, Economic Consultant, former Director-General of the West African Monetary Institute, Nigeria Nigeria (invited by FES, conf.) “Global Financial Crisis: Survival Strategies for the
Financial Systems in Developing Countries”
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Tea Break
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Discussion
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12:00-12:30
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Closing
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· FES
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· CCES
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· SASS
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Lunch
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