This paper uses a Directional Distance Function (DDF) and the Malmquist–Luenberger Productivity Index to estimate the changing patterns of ‘green’ total factor productivity (GTFP) growth of 38 Chinese industrial sectors during the period 1980–2010. Unlike measures of traditional total factor productivity (TFP) growth, the DDF incorporates carbon dioxide emissions as an undesirable output directly into the production technology, which credit sectors for simultaneously reducing their emissions and increasing their output. Our estimates of aggregate and sector-level GTFP growth reveal that Chinese industry is not yet on the path towards sustainable, low-carbon growth. A dynamic panel data analysis of the determinants of GTFP across sectors is used to identify factors that might rectify this situation, including state owned enterprise (SOE) reform, the growth of small private enterprises, continued openness to foreign investment and higher spending on R&D, particularly in emission-intensive sectors.
