今年7月张军教授应邀出席了The Asian Banker（亚洲银行家）在北京举行的“Finance China-中国未来金融峰会”，期间接受了亚洲银行家主席以理（Emmanuel Daniel）先生的英文专访，谈及中美贸易摩擦、中国资本市场改革以及经济结构升级等话题。张军教授表示，从长期来看科技进步有利于中国经济持续发展；通过科技创新，中国可以继续创造业内颠覆性的机构，从而在一定程度上拉高各省份的技术水平。
I'm very pleased to be able to speak to Professor ZhangJun, the Dean of the School of Economics of Fudan University, one of the leading universities in China. He was also the recipient of the Bergson Prize by the American Association for Comparative Economic Studies for a paper published in the comparative economic studies in 2015. He has authored or edited numerous books including "Economic Transitions with Chinese Characteristics: Thirty Years of Reform and Opening Up".
今天能邀请到复旦大学经济学院院长张军教授进行交流，我感到非常开心。复旦大学是中国最顶尖的大学之一。张军教授也是2015年美国比较经济研究协会柏格森奖的获得者。同时，他撰写和主编了多部著作，包括《中国特色的经济转型：改革开放三十年》。
I'm really very pleased to be able to speak to you today at a time when the US-China trade relationship is at its lowest you might say or most interesting phase in its transition.Maybe as an economist,the first question to ask you,which perhaps is not covered very much in the newspapers is really: Trade imbalances, what do they actually say about the actual nature of real imbalance between nations? Is it a capital imbalance? Is it a capital account imbalance? Is it a current account imbalance? What is the trade account imbalance talk say?
日前，中美贸易关系进入了最低点，也是中美关系转型最令人关注的阶段，非常开心今天能与您对话。作为经济学家，第一个要问您的问题可能是报纸上不经常提及的：国家间贸易失衡的实质是什么？是资本失衡？资本账户失衡？是经常账户失衡？贸易帐户失衡指的是什么？
Well, by definition the trade imbalance is actually measured by the imbalance in both the current account and well, service account is another category but if you look at the current account, usually it consists of the balance between the country in terms of merchandise trade as well as the trade in services. But usually I think people are looking at the current account balance in terms of merchandise trade. So in the case of US-China conflicts in trade imbalance, I think the American side is looking very much on the merchandise trade with China. And China definitely ran a crucial amount of surplus with the US. But I think that most economists of today, even those in the US, do not believe this makes sense in the globalised world because the trade between countries today is not the trade that (it was) perhaps a half century ago.
嗯，根据定义，贸易不平衡是由经常账户中的商品和服务贸易的不平衡构成。如果你看经常账户，它通常由国家之间商品贸易和服务贸易构成，服务账户是区别于商品账户的另一个类别。我认为人们看经常账户平衡时，通常只关注商品贸易。在中美贸易摩擦中，我认为美方是非常重视对中国的商品贸易的。的确，中国对美国的商品贸易有很大的顺差。但我认为，在经济全球化的今天，当今绝大多数的经济学家，甚至美国的经济学家，都不认为这是个重要的问题，因为今天各国之间的贸易不再是半个世纪前的贸易。
Winner takes all. It's not a win-lose situation.
胜者为王。这不是一个输与赢的格局。
Yes, because the company can easily dismantle the production process into different parts of the world. So when you say the trade between the two countries, what you actually mean is the trade by the companies in different locations. But the company could be the same. So, in that way, the trade surplus is recorded by customs in the traditional way, I think it does not make any more sense. 是的，因为公司可以很容易地将它的生产过程分解到世界各地，所以当你谈两个国家之间的贸易时，你实际上指的是分布于不同地区间的公司的贸易，但公司可能是同一家公司。贸易顺差是海关按传统方式记录的，这样的话，我认为贸易顺差已经没有任何意义了。And especially when you have, the production of goods now can have 16,100,200 components.
现在的商品生产可以包含16100200个零部件。
Right. Actually, the trade of components in part accounted for more than half of the merchandise trade today in the world. So I think it's either a case of the US-China input and not more.
对。实际上，零部件贸易占了当今世界商品贸易的一半以上。因此，我认为这只反映美—中生产投入的关系。
Into the value-add of the US economy. 进入了美国经济的增加值。
That's right. And American input alot more components from China which is made by an American company.
对的。美国在生产中也使用了许多中国生产的零部件，但这些部件是由在中国的美资企业生产的。
So, as an economist, what would you like to be able to see that captures really that value-add?
因此，作为经济学家，你认为什么才能够真正捕捉到这种增加值？
I think the economy created the term for value-added trade. The trade of the value-added. So we probably should look at how the value-added is distributed across the country. For instance, the company who made a product in the US using components and parts from different parts of the world. I think that with the case of China, because China is much more in the low end of the supply chain so China manufacture through processing of the components or parts which are perhaps imported from the US as well. So the typical case would be the mobile phone.There's a lot more components or parts which are manufactured by the American company rather than the Chinese. Even China put them together in anassembly line here in China to finalise the product. So I think that now economists have a capability to, I think, graph it, all the destination of the intermediate goods, who manufactured in different countries. And then we can come up with a universal map, which you can easily identify who provided what in the same product, manufactured by different countries.
我认为经济本身为增加值贸易创造了术语——增加值贸易。因此，我们可能需要看看增加值在国家之间是如何分配。例如，在美国生产产品的公司所使用的零部件来自世界各地。以中国为例，因为中国更多地处于供应链的底端，因此中国生产的产品在生产过程中所使用零部件，可能是从美国进口的。典型的例子就是手机，虽然手机零部件的制造和组装是在中国完成的，但其中大部分的零部件是由美国而不是中国的公司生产。现在，我认为经济学家有能力将不同国家/地区生产的中间产品的所有目的地绘制成图表。然后，我们可以得到一个通用的地图。通过这个地图，对于一个产品，我们可以轻松地确定谁提供了哪个零部件。
Now another point of clarification that I would like to have asked any economist for that matter is when we look at something called the US-China trade war, is it really a US-China trade war or is it a US-Shenzhen trade war? Because when we say manufactured, a lot of that is in the southern part of China. In the northern part of China, we're talking a very different economy. You're talking about state-owned enterprises. You're talking about heavy industries and so on. Maybe even more domestic in that way. And China as a whole has become more of a consumption economy.So that's not captured in that trade war thing. So how much of it is really well distributed as a description of the true nature of the Chinese economy?
现在，我想问另一个问题是：对于中美贸易战，它真的是中美贸易战？还是美—深贸易战？因为我们所谈及的制造业主要分布在中国的南部。对于中国的北部，我们讨论的是一个完全不同的经济体。我们聊国有企业，聊重工业等等。可能这些问题国内讨论的比较多。从整体上看，中国已成为一个消费经济体，但这在贸易战中并未得到体现。贸易战在多大程度上可以描述中国经济的本质？
Well, China is a huge country.嗯，中国是一个非常大的国家
We always forget that, don't we? It's five times the size of the United States.
我们总是忘记了，它是人口总量是美国的五倍。
That's right. So we do have economies like Shenzhen which is very much driven by the technological progress or something like that. But we have a pretty large area in China crossing the different provinces which are still very much lagging behind in terms of technology. So we still do a lot of low-end manufacturing.So this is a country with a huge regional variation. So when there is a tradewar between China and the US, I think they're probably going to focus on some of the specific areas. I think the Americans would like to see how Shenzhen and the other cities in China have been moving fast in terms of the technological ladder. They want to keep up. So I think that's the point.It's not simply the problems that are recorded in the custom,in a data.
对的，因此我们有像深圳这样依靠技术进步或类似的事物驱动发展的经济体。但我们依然有很大的一片跨越不同的省份的区域，在技术方面依然非常落后。这些区域仍然有很多低端的制造业。中国的地区差异非常大。因此，中美之间的贸易战，我认为他们可能会专注于某些特定的区域。通过中美贸易战，我认为美国人希望了解到深圳和中国其他的城市技术阶梯的攀爬是如何的迅速。他们想跟上，所以我想这才是重点。这不是海关记录数据方法的简单问题。
It's the custom gate data, right? So, therefore as an economist, and I want to add a third component in there which is the financial profile of China. There are the issues of various provinces doing well, A-grade provinces, world-classcities and so on. And then there are provinces which are barely able to create a traction in the economy and some getting into debt which I think the PBOC has mentioned. So when you look at the overall profile of the country, how would you classify what the key issues are, as an economy in that sense? But before that, the financial profile. Because I think China is in an interesting situation where you have no current capital account convertibility. You've kept that to yourself a lot. So that's both good and bad.Good because for a fast developing country you do not want to be subject to hot money and that sort of thing. But bad because you do have a market economy without really knowing the cost of money in that sense. So, talk to us a little bit about the financial market as an efficient platform for cost of funds and then go into how you would classify what the key issues are in the economy.
这是关口记录的数据，对不对？因此，作为经济学家，我想提第三个问题，即中国金融的状况。有些省份做得很好，如A级省份，世界级城市等。然而，有些省份经济缺乏牵引力？有些省份陷入了央行所提及的债务负担的问题。因此，当您看中国的总体情况时，您认为关键的问题是什么？我认为中国处在一种很有趣的状态。目前中国的资本账户还不能自由兑换，在很长的一段时间都是这样子的。这种状况有好处也有坏处。好在于，对于一个快速发展的发展中国家，不希望受制于热钱之类的。坏在于市场经济无法了解资金的成本。因此，我们稍微谈谈金融市场作为资金成本有效决定机制的问题，然后再探讨您认为的经济中的关键问题。
Well, I think this is actually the structure issue facing China over the past 30,40 years. Because economists have been highly divided by a part that is strongly owned by or controlled by the Chinese government, very state-owned businesses,including the banking of other financial institutions. But at the same time, I think the economy's been liberalised a lot, which is growing a part of the economy, which is largely driven by entrepreneurial business and of personal thinking and the fessing way of doing business or something like that. So, it's more dynamic.So the economy's been a combination of the state-owned dinosaur and a very small,but it's growing, dynamic part of the economy. So every time when you're talking about the financial system in China, I think you have to be very careful in defining which part are you talking about. Because in the system, all the banks actually are still very much dominating in the financial resources ,because China has a pretty high selling rate. So more selling resources have been allocated to buy state banks. But alongside, there is a growing financial market, which has been progressing very fast over the past 20 years.But in terms of macro economy, I think the Chinese leadership is very concerned about the cross border,the mobility of capital.So we have liberalised the current account in a way that we can trade and we can receive foreign investment and Chinese companies can invest overseas. But the capital account, we do very agradualist way to open that. For instance, we initiated the QFIIs and weactually set up the Shanghai Free-trade Zone so that we could do some of the pilot, initially, to see how that works. So this is very much a gradualist way of liberalising the financial market.
好。我认为这实际上是过去30、40年所面临的结构性问题。中国部分经济活动由中国政府所有或高度控制，包括其他金融机构的银行业务。但与此同时，我认为经济已经有很大程度的自由，这已经成为经济的一部分。在很大程度上这是由企业家创业活动、个人思想以及轻松的营商环境或其他类似的方式所驱动的。因此，它更具动态性。经济是国有大企业与正在增长的充满活力的小企业的组成。因此，每当你谈论到中国的金融体系时，我认为您必须非常小心定义你在谈论哪部分。银行在金融资源上仍占主导地位，因此很多的资源被分配到购买国有银行。但是，与此同时，金融市场也在不断发展，过去20年间发展非常迅速。就宏观经济而言，我认为中国领导人是非常关注跨境资本流动的。因此，我们已经放开对经常账户的管制，接受外国投资，中国的公司也可以到海外投资。但是对于资本账户，我们采取了渐进的方式来放开。例如，我们启动了QFII，建立了上海自由贸易区，以便我们先进行一些试点，以了解它是如何运作的。因此，这在很大程度上是一种渐近开放金融市场的方式。
But what was interesting about QFII and the Shanghai offshore market is that after the liberalisation, the inflows weren't very much. The flows were not taking up the quotas created which then tells you that the international capital markets believe that China is either overvalued or the return on investment is not sufficient. It's lost its glitter because it's an expensive country now. It's an expensive economy. It's no longer a cheap economy.
但是，值得关注的是QFII和上海离岸市场自由化之后，流入的资金并不多。流入的资金额还没有用完规定的额度，这个可能在传达一个信息：国际资本市场认为中国要么被高估，要么投资回报不足。它失去了优势，因为它现在是一个投资成本很高的国家。它是一个投资成本很高，而不再是投资成本很低的经济体。
Right.Largely because the whole financial system is still very much halfway down in the liberalising cell. I think the trend is much clearer. China is definitely moving, it's liberalising the financial system. But it's not something that to be done overnight and China still keeps that in a low profile way. We can move a little bit if it'snecessary to do so. But we will not do something that we cannot understand. But if you look at what has been done over the past couple years, I think the progress has been quite amazing.
对的，很大程度上是因为整个金融体系的自由化正处于半途中，但我认为趋势更为明显了。中国确实在行动，它正在开放金融体系。但这不是一朝一夕就能完成的事情，中国仍然非常谨慎。如果有必要的话，我们可以稍微地往前走。但我们不会做一些我们还没了解清楚的事情。但如果你看看过去几年所做的事情，我认为进展是相当惊人的。
So I wanted to get these initial points out of the way because I think they're questions that have not been asked in the whole discussion. Tell me a little bit about your sense of where Hong Kong plays in the Chinese economy. Not the Hong Kong or the trouble that it's going through right now.The Hong Kong as a capital market for China and Hong Kong as a reexport centre for China. How does that play?
我想把这些初步的观点先放在一边，因为我觉得它们在整个讨论中没有被提及到。告诉我一点你对于香港在中国经济中所扮演的角色的看法。不是香港，也不是香港现在正在经历的麻烦。香港作为中国和香港的资本市场，是中国的再出口中心。是如何运作的？
Well I think clearly the role that Hong Kong should play has been declining relatively because of the rise of men in the Chinese economy. I think there are a lot more manufacturers that have moved back to Guangdong Province since the beginning of 1980s, where Shenzhen has been rising as a manufacturing centre at the time. But I think that HongKong is still very much important to China, in the sense that Hong Kong is,relatively speaking, is still very much an internationalised financial centre.And I think that men in China can take advantage of having Hong Kong and HongKong definitely can still play the role.
我认为香港所扮演的角色的重要性相对来说正在下降，因为中国内陆的城市也在崛起。自上世纪80年代初以来，很多的制造业已迁回广东省。当时深圳正成长为制造业中心。但我认为香港对中国而言仍然非常重要。从某种意义上说，香港仍然是一个国际化的金融中心。我认为中国的内陆城市可以利用香港的优势和香港依然可以发挥作用。
The reason I ask, also, is that when you look at a lot of the capital market activity in China today, the large technology companies, Tencent, Alibaba, even the banks, ICBC, they all ,Alibaba is not yet, but all the rest, they are listed in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is the window to the rest of the world. And the whole innovation funding mechanism, the exit is Hong Kong. And even municipal debt is traded in Hong Kong. So Hong Kong is a very important pillar holding the international pricing mechanism for Chinese assets to Chinese capital assets in a sense. Everything by way of manufacturing has moved back but everything by way of capital is pegged in Hong Kong. So, in that regard, and it's been many years, you do have a capital market in Shenzhen and Shanghai.You now have Hong Kong connect and yet Hong Kong still plays that role.
我要问这个问题的原因是：当你看中国很多资本市场的活动时，像大型科技公司，腾讯，阿里巴巴，甚至银行，工商银行，它们都在香港上市。香港是中国看世界的窗口。所有创新资金的筹资也是在香港，甚至市政府的债券也在香港交易。因此，从某种意义上讲，香港是中国资本资产国际定价的重要支柱。制造业已经迁回内陆，但一切通过资本在香港钉住。所以，在这方面，深圳和上海有一个资本市场，香港作为连接，香港仍然扮演着这个角色。
That's right. I think China really thinks that Hong Kong is pretty important right now, given the structure problem facing the Chinese men in the colony. As I said, the financial liberalisation is still very much halfway down and a gradualist approach is still being adopted by the government.So Hong Kong is still very much enjoying its unique advantage. So much internationalising and the institutional framework, including the regular framework,is still very much advanced it, relative to the men in China. So I think Hong Kong can still play a very important role.
对。考虑到中国所面临的结构问题，我认为中国确实认为香港非常重要。正如我所说的，金融自由化仍处半途，政府正在进行渐进式的改革，所以香港仍然具有独特的优势。对中国而言，很多国际化的框架和制度框架，包括常规框架，仍然是非常先进的，所以我认为香港仍然可以扮演一个非常重要的角色。
If we did not have the US-China trade war, what do you think China's most important economic priority should be?
如果没有中美贸易战，你认为中国经济发展的重点是什么？
I think the priority definitely should be on the issue of upgrading the structure of the economy through technological progress. I think the government really thinks that technological driven progress would be very much important for the long-term growth of the Chinese economy. And if you look at what happened over the past year or so, the China and US conflict, I think the Chinese government once again believes that China should be moving faster on the road where technological innovation must be the top priority for the government to consider. So I think we're going to create an institution, financing platforms, or something like that to do more,I mean to encourage more technological innovation from the bottom of the system.
我认为当务之急应该是通过技术进步来实现经济结构的升级。我认为中国政府已意识到技术驱动发展对中国经济长期的增长是非常重要。如果你看看过去一年左右发生的事情—中美贸易摩擦，我认为中国政府再一次确信技术创新应是政府优先考虑的事情，中国在这条道路上应迈出更快的步伐。我认为我们要建立一个制度，融资平台，或者类似的东西来做更多的事情。我的意思是鼓励更多来自基层的技术创新。
Right.You speak of technological innovation as if it's not related to skills, to people. In that regard, as a professor, what do you see in terms of the skill sets that are coming through?Are you happy with the skill sets? Is it something that China still needs to import and be exposed to globally? The ability to be creative things like that.
对。你提及的技术创新好像与技能、与人无关。在这方面，作为一名教授，你对即将到来的技能集有什么看法。你对这些技能满意吗？创造能力诸如此类的东西，是不是中国还需要进口，并向全球开放？
Recently, we were talking about the need for more smart people doing math and physics rather than economics and finance. We probably have some bias in the education system because we have too many smart kids eventually who pick up economics and finance for their future career. But actually, for the country in the long-term, China definitely should focus on the best education for math and physics so that we could have more smart guys that are doing the technological innovation.I think 40 years ago when I decided which subjects I should take, at the time I think my parents and some other families for the whole China said math and physics are the most important subjects.If you do that, then you're going to have a bright future. I think that 40 years later, perhaps we should return to that point. Because the point is it's really important for the long-term prolonged economic growth of China.
最近，我们觉得需要更多聪明的人去学习数学和物理，而不是经济学和金融。在教育体系中，可能存在一些偏见，因为我们有太多聪明的孩子选择经济学和金融学作为他们未来的职业。但事实上，从长远来看，中国绝对应该把最好的教育放在数学和物理上，这样我们才能有更多聪明的人才来进行技术创新。40年前当我决定我应该学习哪门学科时，我想当时我的父母以及全中国其他的家庭都会说数学和物理是最重要的学科。如果你那样做，你会有一个光明的前途。我认为40年后，或许我们应该回到这一点。因为这点对中国经济长期的增长非常重要。
But what about the growth of the society, the sustainability of society, care, legal infrastructure, social infrastructure? Those are equally important and in fact, increasingly more important as the country becomes more affluent.
那社会的发展，社会的可持续，医疗，法律制度，社会基础设施呢？这些问题同样重要，事实上，随着国家变得更加富裕，这些问题也变得越来越重要。
ZJ:I think everyone in this country believes,first of all,we need stability. Without stability, you can't do anything.
我认为这个国家的每个人都会认为：首先我们需要稳定。没有稳定，你什么都做不了。
Even with stability, I think people definitely yearn for things you just described. I think the government also understands this. But they hope that progress should have been made within the controllable stability, because without stability it's difficult to put things down like that.
有了稳定，我想人们肯定会渴望你刚才描述的东西。我想政府也明白这一点。但他们希望在一定的稳定范围内取得进展，因为没有稳定，很难把这些事情完成。
At Fudan University, what do you see taking place in terms of students coming in? How they're motivated? What they're focused on? How are they different from previous cohorts of students?
在复旦大学，对于这届新生你有什么样的感受？他们有什么样的动力？他们正在关注什么？他们和以往的学生又有什么不同？
Fudan University recruits students from both local and the rest of China. So the students are coming from different parts of the country. But they're all smart. I've been to Shanghai which is a metropolitan city, very much looking outward. So that could change their mind in a way that they would think the problem facing China in the context of the global economy. I think that's a pretty good thing. But I think the problem is that too many smart students now study finance, which is not really good for the long-term future of China.
复旦大学招收学生来自全国各地，包括上海本地和中国其他地区，但他们都非常的聪明。我一直生活上海，上海是一个开放的大都市。因此，在经济全球化背景下，在复旦大学学学习会改变他们思考中国所面临的问题的方式。我觉得这是一件非常好的事情。但问题是现在有太多聪明的学生去学习金融，这对中国的长远发展可能不太好。
Professor Zhang, thank you very much for spending time with me.
非常感谢张军教授。
亚洲银行家简介：亚洲银行家于1996年成立，是亚太地区权威的金融商情机构，致力于为亚洲金融服务行业提供发展策略相关的深度信息分析。亚洲银行家总部设于新加坡，在中国、马来西亚、欧美等国都设有办事处，其业务主要涉及出版物、研究服务和论坛会议。在业内因为敏锐而独立的评估能力而深受欢迎，如今亚洲银行家已成为亚洲地区乃至全球知名的研究分析和金融数据资讯提供者。
